Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2275

   Mesoscale Discussion 2275
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1222 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

   Areas affected...Western New York into northeast Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 261822Z - 262215Z

   SUMMARY...A favorable zone for heavy snow banding is becoming
   established across parts of western New York into northeast
   Pennsylvania. Snowfall rates between 1-2 in/hour will be possible
   under any band that develops within this region through late
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Precipitation banding has begun to emerge across
   portions of NY/PA  over the past couple of hours amid strengthening
   warm air advection between 850-700 mb and increasing, albeit modest,
   broad-scale ascent ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave. Dry air in
   the lowest few kilometers has limited precipitation amounts at the
   surface for most locations thus far; however, automated observations
   and web cams between Buffalo and Rochester, NY have begun to report
   moderate to heavy snowfall with visibility reductions between 1/2 to
   1/4 mile at times under one of the consolidating bands.
   Concurrently, NY Mesonet observations are depicting steady surface
   moistening with dewpoints climbing by 1-2 F/hour as low-level
   profiles saturate under the heavier precipitation bands. 

   While the heaviest snowfall will likely occur later this evening as
   the upper wave moves over the region, these observed trends suggest
   that the onset of moderate/heavy snowfall rates is likely beginning.
   Areas that can maintain residence time under an established snow
   band may observe snowfall rates as high as 1-2 in/hour as soon as
   low-level saturation occurs. Favorable overlap of synoptic and
   mesoscale ascent will continue to promote snow band development
   within the warm advection branch of the disturbance, which will
   maintain heavy snowfall potential at least through late afternoon
   and possibly into the late evening hours.

   ..Moore.. 12/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

   LAT...LON   41207542 42427792 42737817 42997819 43217807 43367793
               43467752 43467703 43377656 42097437 41687429 41427455
               41177512 41207542