Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2274

   Mesoscale Discussion 2274
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1013 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

   Areas affected...Northern Maryland...central to northwest
   Pennsylvania...and far western New York

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 261613Z - 262115Z

   SUMMARY...A wintry mix, eventually transitioning to primarily light
   to moderate freezing rain, will spread southeast through the
   afternoon into northwest and central Pennsylvania and western New
   York.

   DISCUSSION...Recent mPING reports and ASOS/AWOS observations are
   beginning to show areas of light freezing rain and sleet spreading
   from far northeast OH into northwestern PA and far western NY over
   the past 1-2 hours. Although regional 12z soundings sampled a stout
   dry layer from the surface to about 3 km, the recent sleet/freezing
   rain reports indicate that preceding precipitation has allowed for
   adequate saturation in the mid/low-levels to allow hydrometeors to
   reach the surface. Consequently, surface sleet/freezing rain amounts
   will likely increase through the afternoon as more widespread
   precipitation (attendant to a mid-level wave currently upstream
   across southeast MI) overspreads the region. 

   Correlation Coefficient imagery from KPBZ and KCCX are sampling a
   melting layer between 4-8 kft ARL over central PA, which should be
   maintained through the afternoon amid increasing warm advection
   between 925-850 mb. Near the surface, weak thermal advection below
   0.5 km should maintain sub-freezing temperatures and support
   freezing hydrometeors. Although a mix of sleet/freezing rain is
   expected over the next couple of hours, a transition to primarily
   freezing rain is anticipated this afternoon as the depth/strength of
   the warm nose aloft increases. Latest forecast guidance supports
   this scenario and suggests that freezing rain rates upwards of 0.05
   to 0.1 inch/hour will be possible across central PA into far western
   NY - especially under heavier precipitation bands and/or where
   precipitation rates are locally enhanced by weak convective
   processes.

   ..Moore.. 12/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   42397956 42537915 42517885 40907699 40487663 40117667
               39707684 39537725 39457795 39547855 39687892 39977920
               40187931 40427948 40537956 41428044 41768079 41958070
               42148015 42397956