Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2272

   Mesoscale Discussion 2272
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0611 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

   Areas affected...Northern/Central California Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 260011Z - 260215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Gusty winds are possible with convection this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery suggests a midlevel vort lobe
   is located about 125mi southwest of EKA, lifting northeast toward
   the northern CA coast. Radar data supports this with an arcing band
   of convection, and embedded lightning, extending from the north side
   of this vort, arcing southeast to about 100mi west of MRY. Strong
   midlevel jet will translate inland over the next several hours in
   association with this band of convection. While buoyancy is not
   particularly strong, SBCAPE is on the order of 200-300 J/kg, and
   wind profiles favor organized updrafts. Current thinking is gusty
   winds may accompany this strongly forced band of convection as it
   surges inland this evening; however, current thinking is a severe
   thunderstorm watch is unlikely.

   ..Darrow/Hart.. 12/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR...EKA...

   LAT...LON   35302183 40082465 40302316 35812044 35302183 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH