Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2266

   Mesoscale Discussion 2266
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0405 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

   Areas affected...Central/Northern California Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241005Z - 241130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Convectively enhanced severe wind gusts may impact coastal
   areas from Monterey Bay to the Bay Area during the next couple
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KMUX shows a loosely organized
   line segment with a northern book-end mesovortex moving
   east-northeastward at around 50 kt toward the Monterey Bay area.
   Despite limited buoyancy (especially over land areas), very strong
   wind fields (60+ kt in the lowest 1 km AGL per KMUX VWP) and
   relatively moist conditions/neutral static stability in the boundary
   layer may support convectively enhanced severe wind gusts and
   perhaps a brief tornado risk over the next couple hours as this
   activity moves ashore over the immediate coastal areas.

   ..Weinman/Smith.. 12/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MTR...

   LAT...LON   37422270 37632277 37802249 37762222 37592200 36852160
               36492157 36352186 36492212 37422270 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH