Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2260

   Mesoscale Discussion 2260
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1044 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois and
   western Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 181644Z - 181845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A band of low-topped convection will proceed eastward
   through early afternoon and may result in sporadic wind damage
   across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois into western
   Kentucky. Watch issuance is not expected due to the overall limited
   thermodynamic environment.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KLSX shows a well-organized,
   but shallow, band of convection that has developed along a strong
   synoptic cold front. Latest HRRR/RAP forecast soundings are showing
   minimal MLCAPE (around 100 J/kg) that is confined to the lowest few
   kilometers where lapse rates near 700 mb are steep enough to allow
   for some convective augmentation of precipitation along the front.
   Despite the very poor thermodynamic environment, the KLSX VWP
   depicts 40-50 knot flow within the lowest kilometer, which may mix
   to the surface within the convective band. Although lightning
   production will likely be minimal, sporadic damaging wind gusts
   appear possible with this line (gusts up to 40-45 knots have already
   been observed associated with the front). The limited thermodynamic
   environment is not forecast to substantially improve through the
   afternoon, so watch issuance is not expected with this activity.

   ..Moore/Gleason.. 12/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   38368822 37058867 36568923 36488994 36529068 36659115
               36869160 37139182 37339185 38119111 39129056 39879034
               40098991 39938921 39648855 39258817 38368822 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH