Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2256

   Mesoscale Discussion 2256
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0954 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

   Areas affected...portions of central Alabama into far western
   Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101554Z - 101730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat should continue to gradually increase
   through the morning, into the afternoon hours. A few tornadoes
   and/or severe gusts are the main threats. Convective trends are
   being monitored for the need of a Tornado Watch. An upgrade to a
   Slight Risk is also expected for portions of the region.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually been increasing in
   coverage and intensity across central AL within a low-level moisture
   axis. Recently, a supercell structure has developed and may have
   produced a tornado in western AL. Immediately preceding these storms
   is a 30+ kt southwesterly LLJ that is expected to intensify into the
   late morning/early afternoon hours. At the same time, surface
   heating may boost MLCAPE over 500 J/kg amid upper 60s F surface
   dewpoints and modest tropospheric lapse rates. Latest observations
   show a diffuse baroclinic zone across central AL into far western
   GA. Here, hodographs will be most enlarged amid a potentially
   strengthening LLJ and aforementioned adequate buoyancy. Additional
   supercell structures are possible this afternoon, with a few
   tornadoes and severe gusts the main threats. 

   Questions remain regarding when an uptick in severe may be realized
   (i.e. late morning vs. early afternoon), so it is unclear when a
   Tornado Watch may need to be issued. Convective trends will continue
   to be monitored for the need of a Tornado Watch at some point today.
   Furthermore, given the anticipated uptick in severe, a Slight Risk
   will be issued for the upcoming 1630Z Day 1 Convective Outlook.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/10/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

   LAT...LON   32948400 32578424 32388529 32268635 32348705 32478757
               32678789 33218741 33578665 33638560 33458447 33298423
               32948400