Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2254

   Mesoscale Discussion 2254
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0902 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota into northeast South Dakota
   and far western Minnesota

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 091502Z - 091800Z

   SUMMARY...Light freezing rain accumulations appear likely over the
   next few hours across southeast North Dakota into adjacent portions
   of South Dakota and far western Minnesota.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and 12 UTC upper air
   soundings/analyses depict a zone from central ND into northeast SD
   with low-level thermodynamic profiles favorable for freezing rain.
   These analyses are supported by recent dual-pol imagery from KABR
   which depicts a melting layer between roughly 0.5 to 1.5 km AGL. The
   depth of this warm layer appears to be slightly deeper/stronger than
   anticipated by morning guidance, suggesting that freezing rain may
   be the preferred precipitation type over a more generic wintry mix.
   Recent ASOS and mPING reports from the Jamestown, ND indicate
   freezing rain is ongoing, which may become more widespread over the
   next 2-3 hours as a region of stratiform precipitation spreads
   east/southeast into northeast SD. 

   Despite a potential mid-level cool bias in recent guidance, the
   general consensus is that the favorable zone for freezing rain
   should constrict across western MN by late morning as low-level
   warming promotes a transition to primarily rain across SD. Before
   this occurs, light freezing rain accumulations appear probable.

   ..Moore.. 12/09/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45839548 45599528 45319527 45039545 44869585 44869643
               44959717 45129779 45319834 45609872 45959899 46299923
               46859951 47169964 47499975 47869969 48039938 48049881
               47789826 47169737 46539660 46079588 45839548