Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 225

   Mesoscale Discussion 0225
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0618 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

   Areas affected...parts of southeastern Louisiana and
   Mississippi...southwestern Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 112318Z - 120115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms may continue to slowly
   intensify and organize while advancing east of the lower Mississippi
   Valley through 7-10 CDT, preceded by at least a couple of developing
   supercells.  It appears that this may be accompanied by increasing
   potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been slowly intensifying
   along eastward advancing conglomerate convective outflow across
   central Louisiana, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a
   lower/mid-tropospheric short wave perturbation progressing toward
   the lower Mississippi Valley.  Southwesterly deep-layer mean flow
   ahead of the perturbation is on the order of 40+ kt, with shear
   strong.  Although lapse rates do not appear particularly steep,
   forecast soundings suggest that mixed-layer CAPE is now generally on
   the order of 1000-1500 J/kg across the region.  Inflow of this air
   may support continuing upscale convective growth, as more discrete
   storms also develop and intensify downstream across parts of
   southeastern Louisiana into southeastern Mississippi.

   Latest Rapid Refresh indicates that a 30-35+ kt southwesterly 850 mb
   jet nosing inland across south central Louisiana will continue
   propagating east-northeastward through this evening, contributing to
   enlarging low-level hodographs which could supporting increasing
   potential for tornadoes, in addition to damaging wind gust.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 03/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30869254 31919097 33008948 33758718 32068706 30288955
               29219111 29669254 30869254 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN