Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 224

   Mesoscale Discussion 0224
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0547 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

   Areas affected...Northern Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 112247Z - 120045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to persist
   into the early evening hours across the northern Mid Atlantic
   states, with damaging winds and perhaps hail being the primary
   threats.

   DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms on the eastern edge of
   WW 45 will pose a threat for primarily damaging straight-line winds
   into the early evening hours. There is still a small window of
   tornado potential through at least 8 PM EDT, though forecast
   profiles ahead of the ongoing storms show a rapid stabilization of
   the nocturnal boundary layer. Even with this stabilization, there is
   sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer vertical shear to support a
   continued severe threat as storms make the transition from
   surface-based to elevated. Some potential for hail exists, though is
   expected to largely remain at or below 1.0 inches in diameter.

   ..Halbert/Smith.. 03/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39047785 39457751 39687732 40067743 40597662 40677582
               40507468 40237392 39427427 38607497 38857773 39047785 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN