Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2236

   Mesoscale Discussion 2236
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1100 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

   Areas affected...Northern Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 271700Z - 272200Z

   SUMMARY...Snowfall rates of 1-2 inch per hour remain possible
   through mid/late afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A dominant snow band off of Lake Michigan, with
   upstream connection to Lake Superior, continues early this afternoon
   in northern Lower Michigan. Dual-pol data from KAPX shows higher KDP
   values within this band suggesting 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates
   are possible. Given limited change in the large-scale environment
   over the next few hours, this band is expected to persist through
   the afternoon. High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests this as
   well. The most intense snowfall rates will likely being to wane by
   late afternoon as mid-level ascent from a shortwave trough moves
   away from the region. As this occurs, there may be a slight
   southward wobble in the band as 850-700 mb winds subtly take on a
   more northerly component.

   ..Wendt.. 11/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...

   LAT...LON   44358438 44878534 45088560 45208556 45458547 44668384
               44298383 44358438