Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2233

   Mesoscale Discussion 2233
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0929 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

   Areas affected...northeast TX and far southeast OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 181529Z - 181730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A brief tornado and localized damaging wind threat will
   exist through early afternoon with mesovortices within a line of
   low-topped convection moving east-northeast across northeast Texas.
   A watch may be necessary if greater deepening into thunderstorms
   occurs.

   DISCUSSION...Several transient and generally weak mesovortices have
   been noted around the Metroplex with a largely north/south-oriented
   convective line moving east-northeastward. Low-level shear is quite
   strong ahead of the line per area VWPs and will remain so into early
   afternoon. Convective depth has been a limiting factor to more
   persistent/stronger mesovortices, with a lack of CG lightning
   production and echo tops to around 25k ft. It appears the northern
   tip of 67-68 F surface dew points may be necessary for a consistent
   severe threat. This should tend to ripple slowly southward into
   early afternoon as the convective line occludes the rich low-level
   moisture plume emanating north across east TX.

   ..Grams/Smith.. 11/18/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   32789687 33489682 33939649 34099583 33909504 33469499
               32919497 32479503 32069524 31459567 31179641 31449690
               32789687