Mesoscale Discussion 2232 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Areas affected...parts of north central Texas through central/eastern Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 710... Valid 181225Z - 181430Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 710 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes appears in the process of diminishing, as storms progress into and east of the I-35 corridor. A new severe weather watch is not currently anticipated in the near term. DISCUSSION...The narrow, strongly forced squall line has undergone at least some recent general weakening. Based on latest Rapid Refresh output, it appears to have overtaken the narrow pre-frontal plume of higher northward returning low-level moisture content, and advanced well ahead of the leading edge of stronger mid-level cooling. In the presence of weaker lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, and a residual stable near-surface layer, the potential for damaging wind gusts and perhaps brief tornadoes seems likely to diminish as activity spreads across and east of the I-35 corridor, particularly to the north of the Red River. More uncertainty exists to the south of the Red River, within continuing better low-level moisture return from the northwestern Gulf. However, potential for appreciable thunderstorm intensification may await destabilization aided by daytime heating, and forcing associated with the next perturbation progressing through the base of the larger-scale mid-level troughing pivoting east-northeast of the South Plains. ..Kerr.. 11/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 36119770 36469699 35829616 33879644 32699689 32189753 32139849 33169829 35109772 36119770
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2232
18
Nov