Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2231

   Mesoscale Discussion 2231
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0409 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

   Areas affected...parts of northwestern Texas and southwest into
   central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 710...

   Valid 181009Z - 181215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 710 continues.

   SUMMARY...A narrow squall line may continue to pose a risk for
   localized damaging wind gusts and isolated brief tornadoes while
   approaching the I-35 corridor, including the Oklahoma City metro,
   through 6-8 AM CST.

   DISCUSSION...A narrow, strongly forced squall line, with embedded
   meso-gamma scale cyclonic circulations continues propagating
   north-northeastward into/across the Red River Valley vicinity. 
   Downstream of mid-level troughing taking on a more negative tilt
   into and through the Texas South Plains, models indicate that this
   may be maintained at least into the 12-14Z time frame.  Although
   boundary-layer instability remains limited across southwest Oklahoma
   into the I-35 corridor of central Oklahoma, stronger surface
   pressure falls in advance of the deepening surface cyclone may allow
   for sufficient boundary-layer warming and moistening to maintain a
   risk for damaging wind gusts and additional brief tornadoes.

   ..Kerr.. 11/18/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   35549918 35769737 33589767 32939957 34769884 35549918