Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2230

   Mesoscale Discussion 2230
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0334 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

   Areas affected...parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 709...

   Valid 180934Z - 181130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 709
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The remaining valid portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   709 may be allowed to expire at 4 AM CST, however trends will
   continue to be monitored for the possibility of intensifying
   thunderstorm development across the Hill Country into central Texas
   after daybreak.

   DISCUSSION...As a 90+ kt 500 mb jet streak continues to nose across
   the Pecos Valley through the Texas South Plains, stronger convection
   supported by forcing beneath the more strongly difluent mid/upper
   flow appears likely to continue to spread across the Red River
   Valley vicinity through daybreak.  Although the southern limit of
   this forcing remains a bit unclear, severe weather potential south
   of Tornado Watch 710 appears low in the near term.  However, it is
   possible that forcing along the surging cold front could support
   intensifying thunderstorm development near/east of the I-35 corridor
   of central Texas after daybreak, and trends will need to continue to
   be monitored for the possibility of a new severe weather watch.

   ..Kerr.. 11/18/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31860056 32069988 32109864 32149797 30449809 29899861
               29530048 29710117 31860056