Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2227

   Mesoscale Discussion 2227
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0128 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast LA into central/southern MS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 639...640...

   Valid 250728Z - 250900Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 639, 640 continues.

   SUMMARY...Some tornado and wind-damage threat will spread
   east-northeast with time overnight.

   DISCUSSION...A large southwest to northwest oriented storm cluster
   is ongoing early this morning from LA into central/northern MS. A
   midlevel shortwave trough currently near the ArkLaTex region, and an
   associated strong low-level jet, will sustain this convection
   overnight as it moves east-northeastward through a moist and
   modestly unstable environment. Strong deep-layer shear (generally
   50-60 kt) will continue to sustain organized convection with a
   threat of wind damage, while enlarged hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH of
   greater than 300 m2/s2 per the KDGX VWP) will support some tornado
   potential with any persistent supercell structures or line-embedded
   circulations. 

   A tendency for the composite outflow to sag southeastward may
   continue to temper the severe threat to some extent. However, the
   strong low-level jet will aid in the northeastward expansion of
   richer boundary-layer moisture and modest surface-based buoyancy
   with time. A potentially severe line segment currently approaching
   the LA/MS border will likely persist as it moves near and south of
   the outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone. Farther north/east, marginal
   supercells currently north of Jackson, MS (as of 0725 UTC) could
   pose a tornado and isolated wind-damage threat, if they remain in
   the effective warm sector. Some severe threat will eventually spread
   east/northeast of WW 640, which could eventually necessitate local
   watch expansion or new watch issuance.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 11/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31689188 32869066 33128953 32958908 32588908 32288919
               31658959 31389031 31259175 31689188 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN