Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2225

   Mesoscale Discussion 2225
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0224 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana...southern
   Mississippi and far southwest Alabama.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 132024Z - 132300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should gradually
   mature this afternoon. Tornadoes are possible with transiently
   organized supercells/clusters. Conditions are being monitored for a
   possible WW.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2015 UTC, regional satellite imagery showed
   several clusters of scattered storms ongoing over the northern Gulf
   of Mexico, LA Delta, and ahead of a cold front over the lower MS
   Valley. East of the front and a weak surface low, inland advection
   of middle 70s F surface dewpoints, and scattered cloud breaks is
   contributing to weak/moderate destabilization along and south of a
   diffuse warm front. Scattered storms are ongoing near the front, and
   farther south into the Gulf along a subtle pre-frontal confluence
   zone. As mid-level ascent ahead of an upper trough over the southern
   Plains shifts eastward, convection is forecast to gradually
   intensify and increase in coverage.

   While the stronger forcing for ascent is likely to lag north and
   west of the more buoyant warm sector, convection should gradually
   intensify as the front progresses and low-level/deep-layer shear
   increase. The 12z LIX and area model soundings show low-level
   hodographs increasing in size with relatively large low-level shear
   (0-1km SRH ~200 m2/s2). Shear profiles are supportive of updraft
   rotation with transient supercells or organized clusters. Backed
   low-level flow near the warm front could support a risk for 
   tornadoes or damaging gusts with the more strongly rotating cells.

   Confidence in the overall convective evolution and the magnitude of
   the severe risk remains low. With poor low-level lapse rates and
   weak buoyancy, storm evolution/maturation is expected to be gradual.
   Recent HRRR guidance suggests additional storms are likely to
   develop along the cold front and move onshore within the free warm
   sector. Numerous storm interactions are possible, complicating the
   convective mode. Still, strong low-level shear and sufficient
   buoyancy for stronger updrafts may support a risk for damaging gusts
   and some tornado risk into this evening. Conditions are being
   monitored for possible WW issuance.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 11/13/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   29129028 30239112 31179125 32138986 31768846 30418800
               29718874 29068905 29268984 29129028