Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2224

   Mesoscale Discussion 2224
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0927 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

   Areas affected...Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 130327Z - 130600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...The evolution of a narrow line of storms appears possible
   along a southeastward advancing cold front during the next few
   hours.  It is possible that this may include rapid, but short-lived,
   initial intensification, accompanied by a brief period with
   potential to produce severe hail and wind.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level moistening on southerly return flow continues
   in a narrow corridor north of the Rio Grande Valley into the the
   vicinity of modest surface troughing across the high plains. 
   Beneath modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, it
   appears that this is contributing to CAPE on the order of 500 to
   1000 J/kg across parts of the Texas South Plains through Texas
   Panhandle vicinity.  Some further destabilization remains possible
   northward across the Oklahoma Panhandle into southwestern Kansas
   during the next hour or so, before an eastward advancing cold front
   increasingly overtakes the lee surface trough/dryline through
   03-05Z. 

   The initiation of convection now appears gradually underway west of 
   line from Garden City through Hill City KS, aided by weak
   pre-frontal warm advection.  However, the frontogenetic forcing,
   aided by large-scale ascent associated with the short wave trough
   progressing east of the southern Rockies, now appears most likely to
   be the focus for any potential vigorous thunderstorm development. 
   Once this interacts with the plume of better low-level moisture
   return, more rapid thunderstorm development is likely, and the quick
   evolution of a narrow line seems probable during the next few hours.
    Given the convective mode, the potential for severe hail remains
   uncertain, and the window of opportunity for potentially damaging
   surface gusts seems limited, as the convection quickly progresses
   through the narrow instability axis.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 11/13/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37120158 37920116 38470100 38509977 35160129 35800197
               37120158