Mesoscale Discussion 2220 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0835 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Areas affected...Northwest Texas to the Edwards Plateau Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637... Valid 240235Z - 240430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637 continues. SUMMARY...Sporadic severe hail and wind remains possible across portions of northwest Texas southward into parts of the Edwards Plateau through the late evening hours. DISCUSSION...A pair of strong thunderstorms continues to progress northeastward along and south of the I-20 corridor in west-central Texas. These cells have a history of producing sub-severe hail, but have shown some degree of intensification in lightning trends and cloud-top temperatures over the past 30-45 minutes. Based on recent surface obs and analyses, these cells are likely becoming elevated as they move into a more cool/stable low-level environment. The downstream 00 UTC FWD sounding shows adequate MUCAPE and effective bulk shear to maintain strong, to potentially severe, convection. As such, the relatively greatest near-term severe threat will reside downstream of the ongoing cells where sporadic instances of severe hail, and perhaps damaging winds, will be possible. Back to the south/southwest, isolated convective cells have struggled to intensify, likely owing to lingering capping within the warm sector as sampled by the 00 UTC DRT sounding. Some lifting/erosion of this warm layer is expected as lift associated with the right-entrance region of an upper-level jet overspreads the Edwards Plateau later tonight. Recent CAM guidance suggests that a second round of thunderstorms is possible between 03-07 UTC, though it remains unclear how intense/widespread this convection will be given that 00 UTC HRRR/RRFS solutions have not accurately captured the warmth/strength of the capping layer. Nonetheless, given adequate deep-layer shear an isolated severe threat may still materialize later tonight. For both regions, the overall severe threat is expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude downstream watch issuance of WW 637. ..Moore.. 11/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31010266 31610134 31790097 32090067 32900012 33359981 33609951 33669909 33629887 33429872 32879852 32439859 32139875 30880006 30560057 30400095 30260163 30220215 30220246 30290278 30390295 30630304 30850296 31010266 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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