Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2220

   Mesoscale Discussion 2220
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0118 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

   Areas affected...North Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 081918Z - 082115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm organization/intensity will
   continue over the next couple of hours.  WW may become necessary
   later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a loosely organized band of
   storms along a north-south surface cold front bisecting Texas at
   this time, with weaker/elevated convection to the cool side of the
   boundary.  Over the past hour or so, an increase in storm
   organization has occurred over the Big Country/western North Texas,
   where a narrow frontal band is now crossing Young and eastern
   Stephens/western Palo Pinto counties at this time.

   The pre-frontal environment across North Texas is characterized by a
   moist boundary layer, but with weak lapse rates aloft -- in part due
   to persistent/ongoing precipitation.  Despite the marginal
   thermodynamic conditions however, flow veering and gradually
   increasing with height is contributing to shear profiles favorable
   for updrafts to organize -- even in spite of the less favorable
   thermodynamics.  As such, as storms strengthen gradually this
   afternoon, in part due to weak/filtered heating and thus modest
   additional destabilization,  severe risk -- mainly in the form of
   damaging winds and marginal hail, but also possibly including a
   tornado or two -- is expected to materialize.  Greater tornado
   threat would likely require a more cellular pre-frontal warm sector
   storm mode, which seems rather unlikely at this time.  As such,
   tornado threat should be confined to more weak/brief QCLS-type
   circulations.

   ..Goss/Guyer.. 11/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33219833 33609803 33469745 33029685 31849684 31299737
               31399793 32649841 33219833