Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 222

   Mesoscale Discussion 0222
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0345 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

   Areas affected...parts of MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 112045Z - 112215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated/marginal severe threat is anticipated over the
   next 2-3 hours across Mississippi, with greater severe potential
   expected later this evening over the southwest portion of the state.

   DISCUSSION...Abundant low-topped convection has struggled to deepen,
   well downstream of the QLCS over the Sabine Valley and attendant
   shortwave trough over east TX. Large-scale outflow continues to sag
   southeast from earlier convection that is now in Middle TN, recently
   reinforced by upstream convection over the Ark-La-Miss. Sporadic
   deepening has occurred with updrafts crossing the sagging outflow.
   Despite weak mid-level lapse rates sampled in the 18Z LCH sounding
   and 19Z ACARS near MSY, one cell has been able to produce lightning
   in the open warm sector northeast of Jackson. With a warm/well-mixed
   boundary layer, any sustained deep convection will have the
   potential to produce marginal severe wind/hail amid strong
   deep-layer shear. Low-level shear is weak per the JAN VWP and should
   remain so over the next few hours. 

   Greater severe potential, mainly in the form of wind and brief
   tornado, will likely hold off until later in the evening as the
   upstream QLCS over the Sabine Valley approaches southwest MS.

   ..Grams/Gleason.. 03/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   31729072 31959131 32529118 32869053 34098882 34278834
               34178786 33588800 32978839 32298925 31729072 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN