Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2214

   Mesoscale Discussion 2214
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0105 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

   Areas affected...the Florida Keys

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061905Z - 062100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A brief waterspout/onshore tornado will be possible this
   afternoon within showery convection on the outer/northern periphery
   of Hurricane Rafael.  Watch issuance will likely remain unnecessary.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar reflectivity loop from KBYX (Key West
   WSR-88D) continues to depict a very loosely organized band of
   convection/showers moving west-northwestward on the northern fringe
   of Rafael, whose center remains just south of western Cuba at this
   time.  A few of the showers have exhibited weak/rather transient
   low-level rotation over the past several hours.  With low-level flow
   quasi-unidirectional/westerly, but increasing in magnitude with
   height, low-level shear is sufficient to support continued/weak
   rotation within stronger convective elements.  Overall however,
   given the weak/brief nature of the circulations that should remain
   the case this afternoon, and thus no more than a weak/brief spout or
   tornado expected, a tornado watch is not anticipated.

   ..Goss/Hart.. 11/06/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...KEY...

   LAT...LON   24758288 24678188 24858116 24788096 24598100 24458177
               24498288 24638300 24758288