Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2209

   Mesoscale Discussion 2209
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0609 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

   Areas affected...The Missouri Bootheel into parts of western
   Tennessee and Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 636...

   Valid 190009Z - 190215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 636
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across
   portions of the mid-MS River Valley and lower OH River Valley over
   the next couple of hours as storms move into a favorable air mass.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms moving across far southeast MO have
   struggled to maintain intensity thus far, likely owing to lingering
   inhibition noted in recent RAP mesoanalyses. Despite new updraft
   development noted in IR imagery over the past hour, most new cells
   have similarly struggled to intensify, casting doubt on storm
   coverage through the rest of the evening. However, ongoing cells are
   migrating into the apex of the low-level theta-e plume where
   buoyancy should be relatively maximized. The KPAH VWP continues to
   sample strong mid-level flow, suggesting that the best convective
   environment remains immediately downstream of already established,
   albeit weak, supercells. While confidence is low, an uptick in storm
   intensity/organization remains possible over the next couple of
   hours as storms cross the MS River and enter far western KY and far
   northwest KY.

   ..Moore.. 11/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36689051 36849036 37438910 37518878 37448838 36708751
               36558746 36418746 36258754 35978778 35768811 35758857
               36489054 36689051 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN