Mesoscale Discussion 2208 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Areas affected...Central to northeast Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 704... Valid 042138Z - 042345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 704 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across northern TX/WW 704, but becomes less clear further south into central TX where convection along a cold front has been slow to develop. DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, supercells across the DFW area have struggled to become well organized despite a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Some uptick in intensity has been noted over the past 20-30 minutes as these cells begin to interact with the approaching cold front/outflow boundary. A large hail threat will likely persist for the next hour before these storms fully transition into a somewhat more consolidated and balanced line. After this point, the potential for damaging/severe winds should increase downstream into northeast TX with an attendant threat for embedded circulations given the favorable low-level wind profile (0-1 km SRH remains at around 150 m2/s2). Ahead of this line, shallower convection developing along a weak confluence axis continues to percolate across northeastern TX. This activity resides on the western periphery of a somewhat more buoyant air mass (SBCAPE upwards of 2500 J/kg), but weak forcing for ascent casts some uncertainty onto how intense this convection will become. These storms reside well within the best low-level kinematic fields based on recent upper-air analyses. If a robust supercell can be established, a more prominent hail/tornado threat may emerge. Further south along the front into central TX, convective development has been meager with only a few attempts at deeper convection noted in satellite imagery. The downstream environment ahead of the front remains favorable for robust convection, which would likely develop quickly into an organized line, and latest CAM solutions continue to suggest that development across central TX is likely in the coming hours. Trends are being monitored, and watch issuance may be needed once robust initiation along the front becomes apparent. ..Moore.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31239554 31049583 30939610 30499759 30439812 30509841 30779858 30949852 31129839 31399805 31789763 32079736 32459714 33389667 33859576 33879514 33729478 33509453 33199451 31549533 31239554
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2208
04
Nov