Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 220

   Mesoscale Discussion 0220
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0222 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

   Areas affected...middle TN and far northern AL

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 46...

   Valid 111922Z - 112115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 46
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Mixed damaging wind/marginal severe hail threats should
   persist through late afternoon across mainly middle Tennessee into
   far northern Alabama.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of embedded supercells within a broken QLCS
   have yielded marginal severe hail and downed tree reports thus far.
   The boundary layer remains warm ahead of this activity, with surface
   temps mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. This will sustain a
   mixed damaging wind/severe hail threat over the next 2-3 hours. 18Z
   BNA sounding and recent VWP data confirm a nearly unidirectional
   southwesterly low-level wind profile with modest speed shear. This
   could support a brief tornado or two, but should largely remain a
   secondary hazard. Convection bubbling on the trailing portion of the
   outflow along the MS/AL border could yield an uptick in severe
   potential across far northern AL.

   ..Grams/Gleason.. 03/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   36518653 36748584 36778499 36698461 36348453 35708483
               34918612 34488696 34558812 34938801 35428761 35858737
               36138686 36518653 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN