Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2199

   Mesoscale Discussion 2199
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0959 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

   Areas affected...much of southeast Oklahoma into far western
   Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 703...

   Valid 040359Z - 040600Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 703 continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms remain possible near the warm
   front, but the overall risk has decreased compared to earlier this
   evening. However, trends will need to be monitored for changes in
   storm mode/structure.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms, mostly elevated, moved across eastern
   OK and into western AR earlier this evening, outpacing the warm
   front to the south. Recently, observations indicate the front is
   making northward progress across southeast OK and into west-central
   AR. In addition, radar shows new development near this boundary. A
   rather tight temperature gradient still exists north of the
   boundary, suggesting a limited region for storms to produce
   tornadoes. However, this is also supporting lift and additional
   cells may regenerate over the next several hours. Given effective
   0-1 SRH around 300 m2/s2 along the boundary, a brief tornado will be
   possible.

   ..Jewell.. 11/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35539589 35619425 35359381 34919378 34719391 34479422
               34439481 34589547 34639589 34799621 35109628 35279627
               35539589