Mesoscale Discussion 2196 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Areas affected...southeast Oklahoma into northeast Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 702... Valid 032252Z - 040115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 702 continues. SUMMARY...The threat of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes persists across the watch area, with perhaps a greater risk across the Red River Valley. DISCUSSION...A large mass of rain and thunderstorms currently extends form south-central OK into northern TX, oriented southwest to northeast and primarily north of the outflow boundary/stationary front. While favorable shear exists north of the boundary, cooler temperatures are mitigating the overall threat at this time. Farther south into TX, a very moist air mass is in place with PWAT ranging from 1.50 to 2.00" into northeast TX. Given continued southerly low-level flow, this warm advection regime will persist across the stationary front, which eventually may return north later this evening. At this time, storms have shown a disorganized structure in terms of severe threat. However, the most favorable zone in a relative sense is across the Red River Valley and surrounding counties, as the ongoing activity translates east. Storm cores along the theta-e gradient may pose a risk of damaging winds with the bowing structures. Additional single-cells cannot be ruled out forming ahead of the main band of storms, as the air mass is uncapped. A brief tornado threat could occur with any activity interacting with the boundary. If the front begins moving north, then storms may acquire rotation along it over a longer period of time. ..Jewell.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33409790 34499659 34829601 34869544 34679482 34429460 33729451 33419479 33399579 33239692 32969763 32989806 33409790
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2196
03
Nov