Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2195

   Mesoscale Discussion 2195
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0319 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

   Areas affected...portions of the Red River Valley in southern
   Oklahoma an North Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 702...

   Valid 032119Z - 032215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 702 continues.

   SUMMARY...A mature bowing segment and isolated leading storm will
   pose an increased risk for damaging winds and a few tornadoes in the
   next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Across southern portions of Tornado Watch 70s, a mature
   bowing segment has maintained organization as it tracks along the
   Red River Valley in southern OK and north TX. The environment ahead
   of this convection remains unstable and strongly sheared suggesting
   a continued severe threat. Low-level shear is expected to increase
   as the bow approaches the modified outflow boundary/warm front in
   southern OK. More isolated convection has also slowly deepened ahead
   of the bow across parts of Carter and Love Counties in OK. There
   remains the potential for a supercell or two to evolve and
   strengthen within the strongly sheared air mass. Along with the risk
   for damaging winds (some 70+ mph), a few tornadoes are possible,
   both from embedded circulations and with any supercells able to
   become established.

   ..Lyons.. 11/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34179807 34399761 34639700 34709653 34719612 34599596
               34439587 34099593 33939593 33769605 33619632 33539686
               33509722 33469766 33489783 33559793 34179807