Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2193

   Mesoscale Discussion 2193
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0521 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

   Areas affected...parts of southeastern Texas into central and
   southwestern Louisiana

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 634...

   Valid 282221Z - 290015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 634 continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms, including a couple of
   supercells posing risk for severe hail and potential to produce a
   tornado or two, will continue developing southeastward across the
   region through 7-8 PM CDT, before diminishing.

   DISCUSSION...The southeastward advancing cold front appears to be
   rapidly overtaking the preceding narrow corridor of stronger
   instability across the mid/upper Texas coastal plain into the Texas
   Piney Woods.  However, model output suggests that boundary-layer
   moisture advection and southeastward spreading mid/upper forcing for
   ascent will support sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous
   thunderstorm activity east-southeastward into and through much of
   southwestern and portions of central Louisiana during the next few
   hours.

   This is likely to include continuing generally discrete thunderstorm
   activity.  Low-level hodographs are still rather modest to weak, but
   strong deep-layer shear is more than sufficient for supercells
   posing a risk for severe hail, with at least some potential to
   produce a tornado or two into the 00-01Z time frame.

   ..Kerr.. 10/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   32229389 31519254 30179188 29589343 29409485 30019533
               30669483 31659447 32039419 32229389 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN