Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2188

   Mesoscale Discussion 2188
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0330 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern OK

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 700...

   Valid 030930Z - 031100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 700 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for strong gusts and tornadoes will continue across
   eastern Oklahoma for at least the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...An organized convective line evolved across central OK,
   and this line is currently moving into eastern OK at about 45 kt.
   Several surges have occurred within this line thus far, with the
   most notable surge occurring over McClain and Pottawatomie Counties.
   A 75 mph gust was observed within this surge at Byars. Airmass ahead
   of the line is warm and moist, although poor lapse rates at limiting
   overall instability. Even so, the organized character of the
   convective line combined with this modest buoyancy should allow for
   a persistence of the line for at least the next several hours.
   Primary threat within the line will be strong wind gusts, although
   the notable low-level shear will likely result in some embedded QLCS
   circulations as well. 

   There have been some attempts at more cellular development ahead of
   the convective line, but none have matured. This trend is expected
   to continue, with maturation unlikely given the more limited
   buoyancy than areas farther east and the faster motion of the
   convective line. If maturation does occur, the strong low-level
   shear could result in relatively quick tornadogenesis.

   ..Mosier.. 11/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33949786 34459745 35079693 36089686 36769598 36549482
               35559488 34429580 33889653 33949786