Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2186

   Mesoscale Discussion 2186
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0137 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024

   Areas affected...Far Northwest TX...Southern/Central/East-Central OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699...

   Valid 030637Z - 030830Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for all severe hazards, including a tornado or two,
   will continue from far northwest Texas across southern and central
   Oklahoma. Convective trends are being monitored across east-central
   Oklahoma for potential watch issuance later tonight.

   DISCUSSION...A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues
   from far northwest TX into much of western and central OK. The
   strongest storms thus far have been confined to the warm sector that
   exists to the east of the more coherent convective line extending
   from southwest OK into southwest TX and to the south of a warm front
   that extends from roughly southern Kiowa County northeastward
   through Cleveland County before turning more eastward in Muskogee
   County. This warm front demarcates the more rain-cooled air to the
   north, where temperatures in the low to mid 60s, from the warmer,
   more modified air to the south, where temperatures are in the upper
   60s/low 70s. Widespread rainfall is expected to continue reinforcing
   this boundary, with very minimal northward progression anticipated
   over the next several hours.

   Thunderstorm development will likely continue within this warm
   sector, initiated by persistent warm-air advection and supported by
   1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Moderate to strong vertical shear (i.e.
   effective bulk shear from 40 to 50 kt) will persist across the warm
   sector as well, supporting supercell development with any discrete
   updrafts that are able to mature. Despite poor lapse rates, vertical
   shear is still strong enough to support large hail and strong
   downdrafts. Additionally, recent TLX VAD data sampled more than
   enough low-level curvature to support tornadogenesis, with the area
   along the warm front likely a local maximum in tornado potential due
   to increased low-level vorticity. Primary factor limiting a greater
   tornado risk is potential for storm interaction.

   Some severe threat may extend into more of east-central OK later
   tonight. Currently the airmass over this region is less buoyant, and
   updrafts have not been able to mature.  However, some increase in
   buoyancy is possible and convective trends being monitored for
   possible watch issuance.

   ..Mosier.. 11/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   34829942 35699698 35849509 34339539 33189951 34829942