Mesoscale Discussion 2185 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0851 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Areas affected...coastal MS/AL into the western FL Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 633... Valid 261351Z - 261515Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 633 continues. SUMMARY...Sporadic strong storms may produce gusty winds into midday across coastal Mississippi/Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. A downstream watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Clusters of convection oriented ahead of a cold front are moving eastward across southern MS/southeast LA this morning. This convection has largely been sub-severe, though some brief, weak low-level rotation has been noted where convection intersects a stationary boundary positioned roughly west to east near the coast into far southern MS. Regional VWP and 12z RAOB from LIX indicate enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs amid 40 kt effective shear magnitudes. With eastward extent, strong shear profiles will persist near the coast/surface boundary. However, the stationary boundary will likely remain very near or just offshore the Gulf coast in AL toward the western FL Panhandle, and boundary-layer moisture steadily decreases (dewpoints falling into the 50s F with northeast extent). This will maintain stronger instability offshore as well. While low-level rotation may occur with convection offshore, tornado/severe potential is likely to remain limited, especially inland from the immediate coast. Locally gusty winds may accompany stronger storms, but overall severe potential will be low, precluding downstream watch issuance. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 10/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 31298901 31058695 30798655 30128662 29718693 29578784 29768849 30098888 30518907 31298901 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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