Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2182

   Mesoscale Discussion 2182
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0137 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of south-central Louisiana into far southwest
   Mississippi

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 632...

   Valid 260637Z - 260800Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 632 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of a couple tornadoes and locally damaging gusts
   will continue spreading eastward across southern Louisiana and far
   southern Mississippi early this morning -- within Tornado Watch 632.

   DISCUSSION...An earlier band of convection has largely devolved into
   disorganized semi-discrete elements while tracking slowly eastward
   across southern LA this morning. Ahead of this activity, the HDC VWP
   is sampling 40-kt flow between 0.5 and 1 km. This flow field is
   coincident with around 2-mb surface pressure falls and resulting in
   increased low-level hodograph curvature compared to the earlier
   pre-convective environment farther west. While the continued messy
   storm mode and only modest low-level mass response continue to cast
   uncertainty on the overall severe risk, the implied low-level
   streamwise vorticity and moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints)
   will continue to support a risk of a couple tornadoes with eastward
   extent.

   ..Weinman.. 10/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   31009094 30659092 30209112 29959146 29869193 29989226
               30219230 30749197 31159158 31309134 31229110 31009094 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH