Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 218

   Mesoscale Discussion 0218
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the lower and middle Ohio River Valley

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 43...

   Valid 111836Z - 112000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 43 continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk for damaging
   wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two across portions of northern
   Kentucky and southern Indiana into southwestern Ohio over the next
   couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm redevelopment is ongoing across portions
   of the middle Ohio River Valley as filtered diurnal heating has
   coupled with dewpoints near 60 F to yield weak to modest buoyancy in
   the wake of morning convection. While poor lapse rates aloft are
   limiting instability to 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE, strong effective bulk
   shear of 50+ kts continues to support at least some organization of
   developing convection, including a broken band of thunderstorms
   across southeastern Illinois and southern Indiana. It remains
   uncertain how long this band may persist as increasing high cloud
   cover is likely to limit any further destabilization. However,
   latest guidance continues to suggest that at least a few line
   segments and/or discrete cells will persist eastward across WW0043.
   Despite limited buoyancy, strong 850 mb flow (50+ kt at 1 km AGL per
   the VWX/LWX VWP) continues to support strong speed shear and
   elongated hodographs in the low levels. Thus, at least some
   potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or
   two appears possible over the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 03/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

   LAT...LON   38128759 38278803 38488816 38728778 38958714 39138664
               39308569 39378491 39418379 39328338 39068322 38818328
               38538361 38268461 38008565 37998623 38058679 38128759 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN