Mesoscale Discussion 2178 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0547 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Areas affected...Far southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631... Valid 251047Z - 251215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631 continues. SUMMARY...An MCS will continue eastward across far southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana this morning, posing a risk of damaging winds in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631. A local extension of the watch (spatially and temporally) may be warranted. DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented MCS continues tracking eastward at around 35 kt across far southeast TX toward southwest LA this morning. Recent VWP data from KHGX sampled a 45-kt rear-inflow jet, and several severe-wind reports have been associated with the line. As this activity continues eastward into southwest LA, upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints, modest low-level warm advection (evident in LCH VWP data), and around 40 kt of line-orthogonal deep-layer shear should support its maintenance. The primary concern continues to be damaging wind gusts, though a brief embedded/mesovortex tornado also remains possible -- given sufficient low-level shear and the rich boundary-layer moisture. As such, a local spatial and temporal extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631 may be warranted, to include Jefferson Davis, Acadia, and Vermilion Parishes until 13Z or 14Z. ..Weinman/Smith.. 10/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... LAT...LON 29479219 29579428 29769436 30569418 30739393 30629324 30159209 29829196 29479219 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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