Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2176

   Mesoscale Discussion 2176
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of Southeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 250556Z - 250730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe risk will continue spreading east-southeastward
   to the Texas Coast through the early morning hours. Damaging winds
   gusts are the main concern, though a brief/embedded tornado cannot
   be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KEWX shows an MCS tracking
   east-southeastward at around 40 kt across parts of south-central TX.
   While the leading-line updrafts have decreased in intensity over the
   last hour or so, the well-established cold pool and moist
   pre-convective air mass continues to support embedded damaging wind
   gusts -- especially with any embedded mesovortex structures (i.e.,
   north/south-oriented portions of the line) in the near term. 

   With time, the MCS will continue tracking east-southeastward to the
   TX Coast through the early morning hours. Around 40 kt of
   line-orthogonal effective shear and a moist/moderately unstable
   downstream air mass will continue to support a risk of damaging wind
   gusts and perhaps a brief/embedded tornado risk -- aided by a
   modest/gradually strengthening low-level jet and related low-level
   hodograph curvature. A watch will likely be issued within the hour
   for parts of the area.

   ..Weinman/Smith.. 10/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29359768 29879737 30559618 30809487 30649392 30279375
               29749378 28649542 28439625 28609691 28889744 29359768 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN