Mesoscale Discussion 2175 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Areas affected...parts of south central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 630... Valid 250352Z - 250545Z CORRECTED FOR PEAK INTENSITY INFO The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 630 continues. SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits may accompany thunderstorms overspreading the Greater San Antonio vicinity by the Midnight-1 AM CDT time frame, with renewed trailing thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail, DISCUSSION...A cluster of stronger convection emanating from Southwest Texas, and on the southern flank of a more extensive convective system propagating across central Texas, has been maintaining a forward/ southeastward propagation around 40 kt. As it progresses into/across the Hill Country through Del Rio vicinity, it is becoming increasingly displaced to the cool side of cold convective outflow, with 2-7 mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises noted in 03Z surface observations. Although convection currently appears to be undergoing notable weakening, wind gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits may remain possible as it spreads across the Greater San Antonio vicinity through 05-06Z. Otherwise, downstream of the mid-level trough shifting across the southern Rockies, various model guidance suggests that lift of moist, potentially unstable air above the cold pool, in the wake of the lead convection, may continue to support renewed vigorous thunderstorm development into the overnight hours. Supported by sizable CAPE and strong cloud-bearing layer shear, stronger cells may be accompanied by a risk of severe hail. ..Kerr.. 10/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX... LAT...LON 29190065 29429963 30089906 30299764 29639705 28929811 28700019 29190065 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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