Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2175

   Mesoscale Discussion 2175
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1043 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

   Areas affected...eastern to southern OK...northwest AR...and north
   TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 310343Z - 310445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...While the overall severe threat has diminished, potential
   for sporadic severe wind gusts, marginally severe hail, and a brief
   tornado or two may persist into the early morning. Replacement of WW
   696 with a broader severe thunderstorm watch is possible.

   DISCUSSION...A linear convective band running the length of OK from
   the northeast to southwest, and an emerging line over the TX Big
   Country should persist eastward overnight. The OK convection has
   been undercut by convective outflows with a distinct waning of
   overall convective intensity during the past hour. Still, with a
   plume of moderate buoyancy characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
   from north TX into east-central OK, it is plausible that an uptick
   in storm intensification might occur as the front impinges on the
   plume. The front should accelerate overnight, while low-level winds
   ahead of it become more veered. This will shrink hodograph curvature
   and suggests sporadic strong to localized severe gusts and marginal
   severe hail should be the main hazards.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 10/31/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36159531 36389436 36349368 36079361 35009439 34559507
               33209674 32429857 32649905 33449862 33959823 34699741
               36159531