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| Mesoscale Discussion 2173 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 2173 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0900 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Areas affected...western and central Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 310200Z - 310330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A maturing QLCS and more isolated convection ahead of it are evolving across eastern KS and southwest MO. The risk for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes should increase this evening. A new WW may be needed, but the eastern extent remains unclear. DISCUSSION...As of 0150 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed the QLCS over eastern KS and far western MO has increased in organization and intensity this evening. With multiple embedded bowing segments, several damaging wind reports and measured severe gusts have been reported so far. Storms should approach the eastern edge of WW 659 over the next 1-2 hours. The environment downstream across central MO is unstable, but buoyancy decreases with eastern extent. Strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt remains in place supporting storm organization. This could support a risk for damaging winds across central MO this evening, particularly with the southern half of the QLCS. Low-level shear is also strong beneath the core of a 50 kt low-level jet. Isolated mesovortex tornadoes will be possible with the stronger bowing segments. The primary uncertainty remains the limited buoyancy with northeastward extent. Recent HRRR guidance suggests the QLCS will remain fairly well organized to continue posing a severe risk into south-central MO. Given the potential for a continued severe threat a new WW is being considered. ..Lyons/Hart.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TSA... LAT...LON 36549440 37679430 38379397 39209340 40029285 40419257 40669198 40509162 40219148 39929143 39649137 39109143 38369171 37349204 36829234 36579273 36499333 36509392 36529423 36549440 |
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