Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2171

   Mesoscale Discussion 2171
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0600 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

   Areas affected...North Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 629...

   Valid 242300Z - 250030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 629
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A locally greater tornado threat is evident near two
   surface boundaries in North Texas.

   DISCUSSION...Surface observations show a warm front near the Red
   River and a differential heating boundary farther south, roughly
   east-west through the DFW metroplex. With a continued increase in
   mid-level ascent, a few storms have been able to intensify ahead of
   a large area of stratiform rain in the Rolling Plains. The storm in
   Palo Pinto County has shown the most organization and modest
   low-level rotation over the last 30 minutes. The KFWS VAD does show
   amply low-level hodograph curvature near the differential heating
   zone. As long as storms remain discrete, there will be a locally
   higher tornado potential near these surface boundaries.

   ..Wendt.. 10/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   32489847 32629853 32899846 33639798 33819778 33789742
               33739727 33459730 32829744 32659757 32409777 32379801
               32489847 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN