Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2170

   Mesoscale Discussion 2170
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0729 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

   Areas affected...north-central and northeast OK

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 694...696...

   Valid 310029Z - 310130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 694, 696 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe wind and isolated hail threats should persist for
   the next several hours. The tornado threat may increase during the
   next few hours, ahead of the more intense linear segment over
   north-central Oklahoma.

   DISCUSSION...IR cloud tops and MRMS MESH signatures suggest the
   deepest core of the evening was centered on Logan/Noble counties
   border area within the extensive linear band. Surface dew points
   ahead of this part of the band are in the mid 60s (64-65 F), with
   this air mass well sampled by the 00Z OUN sounding. Despite weak
   700-500 mb lapse rates around 6 C/km, MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg exists
   with a moderately enlarged, sickle-shaped hodograph. The low-level
   jet in the Twin Lakes VWP has increased during the past hour. It is
   plausible that a sustained swath of severe wind damage, along with
   low-level mesocyclones capable of a couple tornadoes may evolve from
   this portion of the line. This may eventually impact parts of the
   greater Tulsa metro area by late evening.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 10/31/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36389705 36619671 36689657 36749615 36669590 36509558
               36319545 35989568 35769618 35719666 35809711 36089744
               36389705