Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2168

   Mesoscale Discussion 2168
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0618 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

   Areas affected...portions of eastern KS and western Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 695...

   Valid 302318Z - 310045Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 695 continues.

   SUMMARY...A broken squall line continues to slowly mature near the
   eastward advancing cold front. As these updrafts organize, they will
   remain capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2315 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a long
   broken band of storms near a cold front stretching from northern MO,
   into northeast and east-central KS. So far, this line has remained
   on the cool side of the front, with numerous bursts of likely
   elevated convection. Over the last hour, composite radar imagery and
   satellite have shown some intensification of the convection as it
   has started to overtake the front in spots. The environment across
   northeastern KS is broadly unstable with 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and
   45-50 kt of deep-layer shear. Plenty sufficient for continued storm
   organization into a QLCS mode, storms should slowly strengthen as
   they quickly track east northeast this evening. A few more isolated
   cells have also been noted on a subtle confluence axis ahead of the
   primary squall line. Intensification of these incipient storms into
   supercells is possible given favorable thermodynamic/kinematic
   parameter space, though highly uncertain.

   Given the primary linear storm mode, the main severe risk is likely
   damaging winds. Strong mid-level flow will aide in downward
   transport of strong wind gusts, some potentially as high as 75-80
   mph. However, low-level shear is also strong and expected to
   increase this evening with the intensification of the low-level jet.
   VAD data and 00-02z RAP forecast soundings show enlargement of
   hodographs is underway, with 0-1km SRH of 250-300 m2/s2. This will
   support a risk for a few tornadoes. Despite the messy storm mode, an
   isolated stronger tornado will also remain possible should a more
   established supercell develop given the very strong low-level shear.

   ..Lyons.. 10/30/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38169603 38439614 39249562 39839527 40089488 40079480
               40469370 40289348 39979346 39139373 38169409 38099463
               38079544 38089568 38169603