Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2167

   Mesoscale Discussion 2167
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0519 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

   Areas affected...central/northeast OK and southeast KS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 694...695...

   Valid 302219Z - 302345Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 694, 695 continues.

   SUMMARY...Primary initial threat of severe wind gusts will likely
   shift downstream of WW 694 in the next couple hours, necessitating
   an additional WW. Overall tornado threat should increase through the
   evening, especially across southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma.

   DISCUSSION...Severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail have been
   the reported hazards thus far, mainly across west-central to
   north-central OK with the southern portion of the convective swath.
   Convection has largely been undercut by the composite outflow/cold
   front, curtailing the overall threat beyond severe wind thus far.
   The north-central OK part of the band will likely spread east of WW
   694 in the next couple hours, yielding a severe gust threat
   spreading into northeast OK and southeast KS. 

   Area VWPs indicate low-level flow has remained nearly steady-state
   over the past few hours, but is expected to increase during the next
   couple hours through late evening. This will enlarge hodographs, in
   addition to advecting richer low-level moisture from southeast OK
   and western AR where surface dew points of 66-69 F are common. These
   processes should yield an increase in QLCS and embedded supercell
   tornado threats toward 01-03Z.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 10/30/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37609690 38029620 37859482 37129475 36669489 35819585
               35249697 35169773 35569841 36669738 37609690