Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2165

   Mesoscale Discussion 2165
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0639 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

   Areas affected...Permian Basin into Texas South Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 232339Z - 240045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Large to conditionally very-large hail and isolated severe
   gusts will be the main hazards with scattered storms this evening. A
   severe thunderstorm watch is possible depending on convective
   intensity trends.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery is showing the initial stages of
   discrete storm development within parts of the Permian Basin into
   the Texas South Plains. A band of cirrus within the southern Plains
   is indicative of lift associated with an upper trough that will be
   digging into the region over the next several hours. That cloud
   cover has limited surface based instability, though greater MLCAPE
   is noted farther east into the Rolling Plains. Strong mid-level
   winds are promoting 45-55 kts of 0-6 km shear. At least some storm
   organization can be expected. Large to potentially very large hail
   could occur as mid-level lapse rates are rather steep (per 18Z MAF
   sounding). Dry low levels will tend to mitigate some storm
   intensity, however. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible. A
   brief tornado could also occur given southeasterly surface winds and
   an increasing low-level jet this evening. A severe thunderstorm
   watch is possible this evening. Storm intensity is somewhat
   uncertain, but coverage may be scattered. The overall scenario may
   be that a few more intense storms develop, but storm interaction
   keeps the duration of these storms limited. Trends will be
   monitored.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 10/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32320328 32390329 32760306 33320183 33540097 33640029
               33510008 33049989 32550052 32160179 31990249 31990272
               32320328 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN