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| Mesoscale Discussion 2165 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 2165 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Areas affected...Southern Iowa and far northern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 693... Valid 302005Z - 302200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 693 continues. SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue to pose a risk of damaging winds across southern Iowa and far northern Missouri over the next few hours. However, downstream watch issuance is not currently anticipated given recent convective trends. DISCUSSION...An organized bowing segment with a history of producing severe winds continues to migrate across south-central IA. However, a decrease in vertically integrated ice, VIL, and echo top height has been noted over the past 30 minutes, suggesting that the severe wind threat may be decreasing in spatial extent and/or intensity to some degree. This is likely attributable to the QLCS meandering into a slightly more stable air mass where daytime heating has been muted due to preceding clouds and light rain. Despite these trends, gradual destabilization continues immediately downstream of the line and ahead of the cold front due to strong low-level warm/moist advection with MLCAPE estimates up to 500 J/kg per mesoanalysis and RAP forecast soundings. The combination of modest destabilization/ascent and favorable deep-layer, line-orthogonal wind shear may maintain the severe wind threat downstream through the remainder of WW 693. Additional watch issuance into southeast/eastern IA remains uncertain and will be conditional on convective trends over the next 1-2 hours. ..Moore.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41459431 42289321 42459298 42499275 42479252 42399239 42279228 41519209 40899209 40549230 40359263 40289311 40459436 40639442 41049442 41459431 |
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