Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2164

   Mesoscale Discussion 2164
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0303 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

   Areas affected...northeast Kansas into southeast Nebraska and far
   northwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 302003Z - 302200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Airmass recovery should result in some severe storms this
   afternoon and evening.

   DISCUSSION...Widespread showers and thunderstorms across northeast
   Kansas has stunted destabilization thus far. However, some clearing
   and low-level moisture advection in the wake of the morning activity
   has started to destabilize parts of northeast Kansas. A line of
   storms is starting to organize across central Kansas which is
   expected to continue to grow upscale as it moves northeast. Expect
   sufficient destabilization ahead of this line of storms for some
   threat for severe wind gusts, large hail, and potentially a few
   tornadoes (along and south of the front). A tornado watch will
   likely need to be issued within the next hour or two across
   northeast Kansas, to fill the gap between watch 693 and 694.

   ..Bentley/Gleason.. 10/30/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38709796 39259727 39969597 40299515 40279402 40039335
               39259334 38549390 38279506 38109600 38219708 38479809
               38709796