Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2162

   Mesoscale Discussion 2162
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0501 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

   Areas affected...Central/northern OH and Lake Erie

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 212201Z - 220000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Wind gusts of 45-60 mph will be possible into early
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Despite scant low-level moisture, low-topped convection
   with occasional lightning as developed from eastern MI into parts of
   OH, aided by cold midlevel temperatures (near/below -25 C at 500
   mb). These showers and embedded storms will spread eastward into
   early evening, in conjunction with a low-amplitude midlevel
   shortwave trough and surface trough/cold front. Steep low-level
   lapse rates and increasing flow in the lowest 1-2 km will support
   gusty winds in association with this convection. One gust to 62 mph
   was measured near Lima, OH (KAOH) at 2045 UTC, with more recent
   gusts of 45-50 mph noted at other sites across western OH. Gusts of
   45-60 mph will remain possible into early evening as this convection
   spreads across central/northern OH and Lake Erie, before increasing
   low-level stability results in a diminishing threat.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 10/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   41618336 42018209 42288130 42298080 42138058 41798058
               41218063 40658104 40218163 39858251 39748325 39808412
               40538385 41618336 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH