Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2162

   Mesoscale Discussion 2162
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0105 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska into
   southern Iowa and northern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 301805Z - 302000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An organizing line of thunderstorms may pose a severe wind
   threat through late afternoon as convection spreads northeast into
   northern Missouri and southern Iowa. Trends will be monitored, and
   watch issuance may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a cluster of elevated thunderstorms
   across northeast KS/southeast NE has undergone gradual organization
   with a consolidated outflow boundary becoming evident in regional
   velocity imagery. Additionally, IR cloud top temperatures have been
   steadily cooling as the line has become more organized, and measured
   wind gusts of 59 and 69 mph were recently reported across northeast
   KS, which point to an overall intensification trend. Gradual
   destabilization is ongoing downstream from this developing line
   across northern MO into southern IA as temperatures climb into the
   70s with low 60s dewpoints. Persistent southerly flow combined with
   muted daytime heating should maintain this trend (although overall
   buoyancy should remain quite limited - around 500 J/kg MLCAPE).
   Regardless, 40-50 knot deep-layer wind shear vectors are oriented
   largely orthogonal to the line, which should favor line maintenance
   and forward propagation along the surface cold front with an
   attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. The limited buoyancy and
   southeastward progression of the front cast uncertainty into how
   intense convection may be as it migrates east, but trends are being
   monitored and watch issuance is possible if a robust/widespread
   severe threat materializes.

   ..Moore/Gleason.. 10/30/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   42249224 41849196 41359183 40839195 40529205 40139222
               39049612 39009647 39229660 39569651 40419623 40739606
               41059580 42769325 42759286 42539247 42249224