Mesoscale Discussion 2160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Areas affected...south-central into northeast KS...northwest into north-central MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242342Z - 250145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will be possible this evening, with a threat of isolated hail and strong to severe wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Storm coverage is increasing early this evening from central KS into northwest MO. Storms to the north/northeast of Kansas City have developed just to northeast of a warm front and are likely somewhat elevated. Persistent low-level warm/moist advection will help to sustain these storms as they approach north-central MO. Moderate elevated buoyancy (with MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficient deep-layer shear could support marginal supercell structures with a threat for isolated large hail. Also, despite this convection being somewhat elevated, a dry near-surface layer beneath the elevated moist plume could support some stronger wind gusts this evening as storms spread northeastward. Farther west, scattered storm development is ongoing from south-central into northeast KS, as a southeastward-moving cold front begins to intercept a pre-frontal surface trough and relatively greater instability. While low-level moisture remains rather limited, strong diurnal heating has resulted in MLCAPE increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range, along with weakening MLCINH. Increasing deep-layer flow/shear associated with an approaching midlevel shortwave trough will support some organized convection through the evening. Rather strong low-level flow (30-40 kt in the 1-3 km layer per regional VWPs) and steep low-level lapse rates will support potential for strong to locally severe gusts within this regime, especially if any organized clustering occurs. Isolated hail will also be possible, especially into east-central/northeast KS and northwest MO, where somewhat more favorable moisture and buoyancy will be in place. ..Dean/Hart.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37829798 38729706 39009674 39919589 40459437 40469379 40479286 40379259 39899309 39569346 39029418 38269515 37799564 37359641 37279699 37289743 37369820 37829798
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