Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2159

   Mesoscale Discussion 2159
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0522 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

   Areas affected...Much of Iowa... into portions of far northwestern
   Illinois and southern Minnesota.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242222Z - 250045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Multiple areas of scattered thunderstorms ongoing within a
   broad warm-air advection regime may pose a threat for occasional
   severe hail through the evening and overnight hours. A WW is
   unlikely, though conditions are being monitored.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2210 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
   showed multiple clusters of scattered to numerous thunderstorms
   ongoing over IA, northwest IL, and southern MN. Located ahead of a
   shortwave trough over the central Plains and north of a surface warm
   front near the Missouri River, these storms are ongoing in a
   relatively strong low-level warm-air advection regime. Broad
   isentropic ascent and the arrival of a cold front should continue to
   support sufficient lift from scattered to numerous thunderstorms
   this evening.

   Despite very poor low-level dewpoints and lapse rates, several
   elevated clusters have emerged over parts of IA, MN and IL with
   occasional reports of hail and gusty winds with the more robust
   convection. MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg, overlapping with cool mid-level
   temperatures and 35-45 kt of effective shear will support a mixed
   mode of elevated supercells and linear clusters capable of isolated
   severe hail and perhaps a strong wind gust through this evening. 

   Additional storm development appears likely as a robust 30-40 kt
   low-level jet and cold front arrives later this evening. Numerous
   elevated storms should spread east into eastern IA and NW IL with
   the potential for a couple of more organized cells to produce
   isolated hail and gusty winds. Given the relatively limited coverage
   of organized severe storms and limited buoyancy with eastward
   extent, a watch is not currently anticipated.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 10/24/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   42759624 43689545 44259434 44279424 43989227 43779182
               43369132 42769104 42029087 41279098 40969139 40859212
               40939340 40969434 41559593 42759624