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| Mesoscale Discussion 2154 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 2154 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Areas affected...the southern High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691... Valid 210417Z - 210545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691 continues. SUMMARY...Potential for isolated severe hail from quarters to golf balls, and locally strong gusts of 45-60 mph should persist for another couple hours, before likely weakening overnight. Additional watch issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Discrete cells have largely remain separated in two distinct convective swaths; one east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains across the Raton Mesa, and separately near the I-40 corridor in eastern NM. These areas are gradually converging and this process should accelerate over the next couple hours. A couple persistent supercells have spread slowly northeast in both regimes from far southeast CO to east-central NM. The FDX VWP data appears to be sampling the previously advertised increasing weakness in the hodograph from 1-3 km AGL. In conjunction with gradual nocturnal cooling within a moist low-level air mass, supercell structures should diminish, as well as become increasingly elevated in time overnight. 00Z HREF members along with the NSSL-MPAS are rather consistent in supporting a decreasing severe threat after 06Z. ..Grams.. 10/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 37330367 37900332 38030285 37700259 37170254 36110268 35170277 34630305 34640366 34880432 35520422 36200434 36460434 37330367 |
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