Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2143

   Mesoscale Discussion 2143
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0521 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast AZ

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 112221Z - 120015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through the
   remainder of the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A storm has recently intensified east of Tucson and
   produced 1-inch diameter hail, with other storms gradually
   increasing in coverage across southeast AZ. The 18Z TUS sounding
   depicts an environment characterized by relatively rich moisture but
   weak midlevel lapse rates, and sufficient deep-layer shear for
   organized convection. While this area is somewhat removed from
   stronger large-scale ascent associated with a deep mid/upper-level
   trough over the western CONUS, MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and effective
   shear of 35-45 kt will support potential for isolated strong storms,
   including potential for a supercell or two. The weak lapse rate
   environment will not be particularly favorable for hail or wind, but
   isolated instances of marginally severe hail and/or strong gusts
   will be possible through the remainder of the afternoon.

   ..Dean/Kerr.. 10/11/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31351155 32661176 33571139 33791062 33460930 32800912
               31900907 31240915 31190995 31351155 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN