Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2140

   Mesoscale Discussion 2140
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0607 PM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

   Areas affected...portions of central New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 072307Z - 080100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated supercells may produce severe hail over the next
   few hours, and an instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail are
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells continues to progress eastward
   amid an amply sheared, and adequately unstable environment. MRMS
   MESH data suggests that the leading supercell may be occasionally
   producing hail up to 2 inches in diameter. Furthermore, modifying
   the 18Z ABQ observed sounding to reflect the latest low-level
   thermodynamic profile shows that nearly 1000 J/kg SBCAPE remains in
   place given near 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates. When factoring in the
   elongated hodographs and associated strong speed shear with the
   aforementioned buoyancy, the thinking is that the supercells will
   persist at their current intensity for at least a couple more hours,
   with continued severe potential. Given the favorable hodograph
   structure, despite modest buoyancy, an instance or two of hail
   approaching 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out. The marginal
   thermodynamic profile downstream will likely inhibit a longer term
   severe threat.

   ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 10/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34500738 34730675 34690590 34470585 34340594 34190637
               34190681 34200698 34220722 34500738 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN