Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 213

   Mesoscale Discussion 0213
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0910 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

   Areas affected...Upper Ohio Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 111410Z - 111615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...While surface-based instability may remain limited, strong
   low-level flow will promote damaging wind and tornado potential into
   the afternoon. A tornado watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...A narrow band of convection continues to race eastward
   into western Ohio this morning. The KIND and KILN VWP showed around
   75 kts in the lowest 2 km. Despite limited buoyancy, convection
   should be deep enough to promote damaging wind potential based on
   the strength of the low-level flow alone. Furthermore, VWP data from
   regional 88D/TDWR also showed enlarged low-level hodographs. A few
   tornadoes will be possible within the line of convection as it
   continues into the afternoon. The main question going forward will
   be the degree of destabilization downstream of the current strongest
   activity. A broad area of precipitation precedes the narrow band and
   is moving from southern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. Buoyancy may
   continue to remain limited as a result. The low-level moisture
   content is sufficient enough that even weak surface heating would
   allow for stronger convection. There is also some potential for
   additional activity to form on the southern flank of the
   precipitation later this afternoon. Though these uncertainties
   exist, the environment will still support damaging wind and tornado
   potential. A tornado watch will likely be needed.

   ..Wendt/Gleason.. 03/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   40258245 40828330 41058362 41268353 41548243 41588146
               41578091 41338003 40737976 40177988 39327999 39318087
               39598150 40258245 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN