Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2129

   Mesoscale Discussion 2129
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0211 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024

   Areas affected...South-central/southeast IA into far northeast
   MO/northwest IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 040711Z - 040915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail is possible overnight.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has increased in coverage and
   intensity over the last 1-2 hours across parts of Iowa, within a
   low-level warm advection regime. Recent intensification has occurred
   with a cell south of Des Moines, with other semi-discrete cells
   noted along the southwest periphery of the ongoing convection. These
   storms have developed within the northern periphery of a gradually
   expanding elevated buoyancy plume, with MUCAPE generally around
   500-1000 J/kg. Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is supporting
   effective shear of 25-35 kt for convection rooted within the 800-700
   mb layer, sufficient for some storm organization. Relatively steep
   midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will continue to
   support an isolated severe-hail threat with any stronger storms that
   can remain semi-discrete overnight.

   ..Dean/Gleason.. 10/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   41319410 41749247 41839148 41729101 41309081 40589084
               40369141 40669330 40709354 41319410